The 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report offers important early insight for UK HR and reward professionals planning next year’s health and wellbeing budgets. Based on input from Aon health experts in more than 100 markets, the research forecasts how employer-sponsored medical costs are expected to change in 2027, taking into account inflation, utilisation patterns, treatment advances and underlying health risks such as chronic disease and mental health.
Globally, the report points to a moderating picture. The projected global medical trend is expected to ease to 9.0% in 2027, down from higher levels in recent years, as inflation softens in many regions and post-pandemic catch‑up care starts to stabilise. However, this moderation does not mean cost relief: in many markets, medical costs are still forecast to rise at more than three times the rate of general inflation, driven by structural pressures like ageing populations, workforce shortages and sustained demand for care.
For UK HR leaders, the most relevant lens is Europe. The region is forecast to see a modest increase in general inflation in 2027, yet a lower gross medical trend than in 2026 – down from 8.2% to 7.5%. Within this, the United Kingdom stands out: it is identified as one of Europe’s largest markets and is expected to experience a full 2% decrease in medical trend compared with 2026, moving it to 10% in 2027 at a time when 70% of European countries are projecting flat or declining trend.
This matters directly for budgeting and strategy. A lower projected trend gives UK employers an opportunity to breathe and think more strategically about how they allocate spend – particularly in areas like mental health and broader wellbeing, where targeted investment can both manage costs and improve workforce outcomes. With demand for healthcare levelling off after several years of post‑pandemic surge, there is scope to shift focus from short‑term firefighting to longer-term design: prevention, early intervention, and integrated mental health support.
The report underlines that many of the pressures on the healthcare system remain, even where trend is easing. In the UK and across Europe, increased reliance on private healthcare, capacity constraints in public provision, and rising prevalence of long‑term conditions – including stress, anxiety and depression – continue to put upward pressure on claims. For HR professionals, this reinforces the case for data‑driven wellbeing strategies: using claims, absence and engagement data to pinpoint where mental health issues are concentrating, and then tailoring benefits, digital tools and workplace initiatives accordingly.
Looking ahead to 2027, UK organisations that combine disciplined cost management with a deliberate focus on mental health and wellbeing are likely to be best placed. Leveraging the insight from this report can help benefits and HR teams stress‑test current cover levels, re‑balance spend between acute treatment and prevention, and ensure mental health pathways are accessible, timely and clinically robust.
If you’d like to find out more, you can download Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report here.
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